GTA5 sales prediction

Wedbush Securities analyst Michael Pachter gave his prediction today on the sales of Take-Two’s Grand Theft Auto 5. According to the sales expert, GTA5 is set to break records with expected sales to reach 24 million units sold over its lifetime. 15-20 million copies are expected to be sold before the end of the 2014 fiscal year (March 31st 2014). Previous GTA titles were commonly released in October (although GTA4 was released in April after a 6 month delay) giving them only a few months of sales before the new fiscal year began. However with GTA5 set for a September release Take Two will enjoy a longer sales period for the 2014 fiscal year.

Pachter had the following to say to investors,

“Grand Theft Auto V is on track, and sell-in should hit a record in [fiscal year 2014], we expect a greater number of units sold in FY:14 than in any prior year of release for a GTA title. We expect GTA V to sell 20 million units in FY:14 and 24 million units lifetime, assuming an attach rate of 20 percent.”

So how does his prediction compare to GTA4 (released in 2008)? In its first week GTA4 sold over 6 million copies (PS3 and 360 combined). 3.6 million of those were sold on launch day. As reported by GameSpot in November 2012 GTA4 has reportedly sold over 25 million copies worldwide, more than what Pachter predicts for GTA5.

Do you agree with the analyst? Will GTA5 sell less over its lifetime than GTA4.